United States May sharply weaker non-farm data, probability of rate hike in June fell to the freezing point

Beijing time June 3, 8:30, United States Department of labor announced that May non-farm payrolls increased by only 38,000, far less than the forecast of 160,000, probability of rate hike in June fell to freezing point. But surprise non-farm data are mainly affected by the strike does not mean that trends. Deficit rate is 3 in Lou Jiwei guarantee key expendituresGold rose more than 17 dollars after the data, the dollar fell below 95.On May 18, the United States Federal Reserve Announces April rate meeting minutes if second-quarter United States economic data continues to improve, gradually rose to the Federal Reserve's target inflation level, the Fed may raise interest rates at the June meeting. The Fed's unusually hawkish remarks.So before the June economic data will be crucial, while non-farm payrolls data is that the Fed is most concerned about economic data, an estimated 160,000 new nonfarm payrolls data are only 38,000.History before the May non-farm data at a glance.Surprise economic data make the probability of a rate hike in June fell to freezing point.However, non-farm data down to 6-year low was not big fluctuations in economic fundamentals, but caused by a strike, and other economic indicators to improve.May average hourly earnings grew by 0.2%, increased for three consecutive months, has remained. On May 26, the National Association of Realtors released data show that United States pending home sales index rose to 5.1% in April, far exceeding the expected rose 0.7%, a ten-year high level. United States index of pending home sales rose for the 20th consecutive month.Macro analyst Zhang Minsheng securities overseas surging on news that representative of salary growth in labour income, income from assets of the real estate market representative, for families, spend, consume most of this effect are two important indicators, now stable salaries and real estate this month strike affected mainly the data do not represent economic trends.According to United States Government reports released last week showed that Verizon strike for up to a month with May employment data reduction 35100. These workers on strike June 1 has returned to work, but in jobs during the investigation, they did not receive a salary, and therefore has not been included in the employment data. This factor greatly affected the May non-farm payrolls.Market for a June rate hike expectations lower than in July. June 14-15th, about one week after the meeting on June 23, is the United Kingdom Ou Gong voted the date back. So the markets think the Fed won't in the United Kingdom before Ou Gong voted back to market volatility.On May 27, after Yellen speaks at Harvard University, before the possibility of a Fed rate hike in June from Yellen spoke up 4% 30%, 34%; possibility of a rate hike in July also increased by 4%, 62%, hit a record high.Yellen issued a speech that "think that if the economy continues to improve, employment continued to increase, in the next few months, with slow deliberation of the Federal Reserve to raise the overnight federal funds rate may be appropriate". CME interest rate futures showed increased probability of rate hike in June to 34%. After today's non-farm data, probability of Fed rate hike in June is only 3.8%, with 20.6% before the data are released, probability of rate hike in July, from 48.6% to 32.4%. Deficit rate is 3 in Lou Jiwei guarantee key expendituresZhang surging on news that should keep in mind that the original intention of raising interest rates. Raising interest rates is to curb economic overheating of earlier in 1994 and 2004, this time for purposes of preventing risks of monetary policy back to normal and avoid depletion of future economic and financial risks and monetary policy. As the economy and financial market volatility caused by the interest rate hike is putting the cart before the Fed will communicate with the market, good communication is the definition of a specific month interest rate expectations consistency of up to 80% per cent, approaching up to 90%, which requires release of the Federal Reserve signals and statements. For now, the pigeons go hawks no doubt, but Hawk is not full, 6 July interest rate hike seems hasty.Debt wanggeluosi is expected in July will raise interest rates.